Analyzing The Future of HR

Post by
Phil Strazzulla
August 15, 2018

August is a good time to reflect on the past, and plan for the future.  With that in mind, we thought it'd be fun to use this month to focus our Whiteboard Wednesday series on predicting what HR would look like in 2023.Part of this experiment was making our own predictions.  And, part of it was asking for your predictions.So, we just got the results back from our survey.  First off, thank you to everyone who participated.  I thought we'd get ~20 people who weren't on vacation this Summer to fill out the survey, and was completely overwhelmed in the best possible way by the number of people who filled out our questionnaire, and the level of thought put into the responses!

Here are the results:

Here are the results of the survey, see below for the video version :)Will resumes still be used in job applications?

It's really interesting that most people think resumes will still be the main way people apply for jobs in the future.  In our opinion, online profiles and the data gleaned from aptitude type tests (the evolution of Pymetrics/Predictive Index type solutions) will be the main way that people are vetted initially for jobs in 5 years.  Time will tell!

What percent of career sites will be VR based?

It's very exciting to see how many people think that the future of career sites will be VR based.  Right now, the state of most career sites is pretty weak with many not even having mobile optimization built in.  However, it's great to see that most HR people think this is an area that will change drastically in the future.

What percent of jobs will have been replaced by AI?

The average survey respondent thinks 30% of jobs will be replaced by AI.  This seems incredibly high...but surely we'll see more and more jobs replaced.  And, even if 1-2 large industries, like trucking, go away - it will have massive impacts for our society.

What percent of “HR” teams will be called “PeopleOps”?

Interestingly, nearly half of people think HR will transform into People Operations.  We are seeing this transition occur, particularly in the startup space.  To us, it means that HR gets a chance to shake off the bad branding it has endured over the past few decades.  This will happen by new skill sets entering the industry, and a larger focus on people from the rest of the organization.

What will be the hardest job title to fill in 2023?

We got a lot of random ones here.  AI Scientist, Quantum Engineer...and then some very realistic ones like CEO or Head of Product.  The recurring theme is that most of these future hard to fill roles are STEM related in one way or another.

What tool will have disappeared?

The death of the job board has been predicted for a very long time...but they still persist as the main way talent gets found by companies.  Most people think this will change over the next five years.

What will unemployment be in the US?

If you can predict the future of the economy accurately, you're probably in the wrong field (go make a few hundred million as a hedge fund manager!).  That said, it's interesting to think about a world where unemployment is still below 5%, as well as one where it's above 10%.  Does this mean TA is less important?  Does it mean employers stop caring as much about employees?

What’s your CRAZIEST HR Prediction for 2023?

We got some good ones here:

  • HR goes away - people think AI will replace it, or another part of the organization will simply start to do it better
  • TA eats HR, or HR eats TA, or TA just breaks apart - most people think these two just don't get along and won't be part of the same org for long
  • AI tells us where to work - AI and machine learning will have more insights into what we should or shouldn't do for work than even the people that know us best can tell
  • Talent alliances - Many people think that companies will band together and share candidates in order to decrease their cost/hire and time to fill

Here's a bit more - thanks again to everyone who participated!